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Climate change is predicted to intensify lake algal blooms globally and result in regime shifts. However, observed increases in algal biomass do not consistently correlate with air temperature or precipitation, and evidence is lacking for a causal effect of climate or the nonlinear dynamics needed to demonstrate regime shifts. We modeled the causal effects of climate on annual lake chlorophyll (a measure of algal biomass) over 34 y for 24,452 lakes across broad ecoclimatic zones of the United States and evaluated the potential for regime shifts. We found that algal biomass was causally related to climate in 34% of lakes. In these cases, 71% exhibited abrupt but mostly temporary shifts as opposed to persistent changes, 13% had the potential for regime shifts. Climate was causally related to algal biomass in lakes experiencing all levels of human disturbance, but with different likelihood. Climate causality was most likely to be observed in lakes with minimal human disturbance and cooler summer temperatures that have increased over the 34 y studied. Climate causality was variable in lakes with low to moderate human disturbance, and least likely in lakes with high human disturbance, which may mask climate causality. Our results explain some of the previously observed heterogeneous climate responses of lake algal biomass globally and they can be used to predict future climate effects on lakes. 

Abstract A variety of classification approaches are used to facilitate understanding, prediction, monitoring, and the management of lakes. However, broad‐scale applicability of current approaches is limited by either the need for in situ lake data, incompatibilities among approaches, or a lack of empirical testing of approaches based on ex situ data. We developed a new geographic classification approach for 476,697 lakes ≥ 1 ha in the conterminous U.S. based on lake archetypes representing end members along gradients of multiple geographic features. We identified seven lake archetypes with distinct combinations of climate, hydrologic, geologic, topographic, and morphometric properties. Individual lakes were assigned weights for each of the seven archetypes such that groups of lakes with similar combinations of archetype weights tended to cluster spatially (although not strictly contiguous) and to have similar limnological properties (e.g., concentrations of nutrients, chlorophylla(Chla), and dissolved organic carbon). Further, archetype lake classification improved commonly measured limnological relationships (e.g., between nutrients and Chla) compared to a global model; a discrete archetype classification slightly outperformed an ecoregion classification; and considering lakes as continuous mixtures of archetypes in a more complex model further improved fit. Overall, archetype classification of US lakes as continuous mixtures of geographic features improved understanding and prediction of lake responses to limnological drivers and should help researchers and managers better characterize and forecast lake states and responses to environmental change. 

Key Points We observed post‐wildfire increases in nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, sediments, and acidity and reduced water clarity in lakes Water quality responses were often persistent or cumulative throughout the summer, especially for lakes with tributaries from burned areas High‐severity and shoreline burns resulted in a nearly two‐fold increase in total phosphorus concentration compared to control lakes 

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species. 

We conducted a macroscale study of 2,210 shallow lakes (mean depth ≤ 3m or a maximum depth ≤ 5m) in the Upper Midwestern and Northeastern U.S. We asked: What are the patterns and drivers of shallow lake total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a (CHLa), and TP–CHLa relationships at the macroscale, how do these differ from those for 4,360 non-shallow lakes, and do results differ by hydrologic connectivity class? To answer this question, we assembled the LAGOS-NE Shallow Lakes dataset described herein, a dataset derived from existing LAGOS-NE, LAGOS-DEPTH, and LAGOS-CLIMATE datasets. Response data variables were the median of available summer (e.g., 15 June to 15 September) values of total phosphorus (TP) and chlorophyll a (CHLa). Predictor variables were assembled at two spatial scales for incorporation into hierarchical models. At the local or lake-specific scale (including the individual lake, its inter-lake watershed [iws] or corresponding HU12 watershed), variables included those representing land use/cover, hydrology, climate, morphometry, and acid deposition. At the regional scale (e.g., HU4 watershed), variables included a smaller set of predictor variables for hydrology and land use/cover. The dataset also includes the unique identifier assigned by LAGOS-NE(lagoslakeid); the latitude and longitude of the study lakes; their maximum and mean depths along with a depth classification of Shallow or non-Shallow; connectivity class (i.e., whether a lake was classified as connected (with inlets and outlets) or unconnected (lacking inlets); and the zone id for the HU4 to which each lake belongs. Along with the database, we provide the R scripts for the hierarchical models predicting TP or CHLa (TPorCHL_predictive_model.R), and the TP—CHLa relationship (TP_CHL_CSI_Model.R) for depth and connectivity subsets of the study lakes.